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Mayer Multiple: The 200-Day MA Ratio That Trent Mayer Found
Mayer Multiple explained. How the BTC price to 200-day moving average ratio has identified long-term cycle regimes, Mayer's original 2.4 and 0.8 thresholds, and practical use.
Updated May 8, 2026· CRYPTINT.IO Intelligence
Key Takeaways
- +Mayer Multiple divides Bitcoin's current price by its 200-day moving average. It was introduced by Trace Mayer in 2014 as a simple cycle-regime indicator and has held up remarkably well across multiple cycles.
- +Above 2.4: historically overheated. Every major cycle top has coincided with BTC pushing well above this level. The ratio expresses how far current price has detached from the yearly average.
- +Below 1.0: structural bear territory. BTC trading below its 200-day MA has happened during every meaningful drawdown. Below 0.8 has marked all major cycle bottoms.
- +Mayer Multiple isn't on-chain data strictly speaking (it uses price and a moving average, not blockchain data). It's usually grouped with on-chain indicators because of its cycle-regime application and frequent use alongside MVRV and Puell.
- +Like other cycle metrics, Mayer's signal quality has eroded somewhat as markets mature. Extremes still flag regime but precise timing requires confluence with other indicators.
What Mayer Multiple Measures
Mayer Multiple is simply:
Mayer Multiple = BTC Price / BTC 200-day Moving Average
At 1.0, price equals the yearly average. Above 1.0, price is above average. Below 1.0, below average. The scale is intuitive.
The 200-day moving average itself is a widely watched technical level. Mayer's innovation was to formalize its use as a cycle indicator with specific thresholds that have held up empirically.
Historical Mayer Multiple Patterns
Bitcoin Mayer Multiple at Cycle Extremes
| Date | Event | Approximate Mayer Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2013 top | Major cycle peak | ~4.0 |
| Jan 2015 bottom | Post-Gox bottom | ~0.70 |
| Dec 2017 top | Major peak | ~2.8 |
| Dec 2018 bottom | Post-ICO bust | ~0.60 |
| Apr 2021 top | First 2021 peak | ~2.4 |
| Nov 2021 top | Nov peak | ~1.8 |
| Nov 2022 bottom | FTX crash bottom | ~0.70 |
| Current (2026) | Ongoing | Varies |
The pattern is clear. Above 2.4 has marked extended euphoria and proximity to cycle tops. Below 0.8 has marked deep drawdowns and proximity to cycle bottoms.
Each cycle's peak Mayer Multiple has been lower than the previous (4.0 in 2013, 2.8 in 2017, 2.4 in 2021). Like MVRV, Mayer's amplitude has compressed as Bitcoin has matured.
The 2.4 and 0.8 Thresholds
Mayer's original analysis used 2.4 as the "expensive" threshold and 0.8 as the "cheap" threshold. These were derived from studying historical price action through 2013 and have held up in subsequent cycles.
Mayer Multiple Regime Zones
| Mayer Range | Regime |
|---|---|
| > 2.4 | Historically overheated; cycle-top zone |
| 1.5 - 2.4 | Extended bull; late-cycle territory |
| 1.0 - 1.5 | Healthy bull; above yearly average |
| 0.8 - 1.0 | Consolidation or early bear |
| < 0.8 | Structural bear; historical bottom zone |
Above 2.4, buying has historically been poor risk/reward on any meaningful timeframe. Below 0.8, buying has historically been excellent risk/reward.
Why the 200-Day MA
The 200-day moving average is a traditional cycle-regime indicator in equity markets. It's long enough to smooth daily noise, short enough to reflect meaningful market regime shifts. Institutional allocators have used the 200-day across asset classes for decades.
For Bitcoin specifically, 200 days corresponds roughly to cycle-phase durations. Bull markets persist for extended periods above the 200-day. Bear markets persist below it. Cross-overs of the 200-day have historically marked regime change points.
Mayer Multiple formalizes the percentage above or below the 200-day as a tradeable metric. The metric is simpler than on-chain data but has proven useful in complement with deeper analysis.
Comparison with Other Cycle Indicators
Cycle Indicator Comparison
| Indicator | Input | Top Signal | Bottom Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mayer Multiple | Price / 200DMA | Above 2.4 | Below 0.8 |
| MVRV Ratio | Market Cap / Realized Cap | Above 3.5 | Below 1.0 |
| MVRV Z-Score | Standardized MVRV | Above 7 | Below 0 |
| Puell Multiple | Miner revenue vs 1Y MA | Above 4.0 | Below 0.5 |
| NVT Signal | Market cap / 90D tx volume | Above 140 | Below 55 |
Multiple cycle indicators converging at extremes is what produces confluence signals. Mayer 2.4 + MVRV 3.5 + Puell 4 + NVT Signal 140 would be an exceptionally clear cycle-top regime signal. Individually, each is suggestive; together, the signal is strong.
Mayer Multiple in Practice
Useful observations:
- Mayer sitting above 1 for extended periods is normal bull market behavior. Not a reason to sell.
- Mayer spiking above 2 after a long rally should trigger review of position sizes. Risk/reward deteriorates above this level.
- Mayer pushing above 2.4 has historically been when taking profits has been the highest-leverage action.
- Mayer dropping below 1 during an established bull market signals correction; often a useful accumulation opportunity for long-term holders.
- Mayer below 0.8 has been the clearest signal in Bitcoin history for long-term buying.
Limitations
- Simple metric: uses only price and 200-day MA. Doesn't reflect on-chain activity, sentiment, or macro context.
- Cycle compression: peak Mayer readings have declined each cycle. 2.4 may not be achieved in future cycles.
- Structural changes: ETF flows, institutional adoption, and regulatory developments change market dynamics in ways a 200-day MA doesn't capture.
- No intermediate signal: Mayer is a cycle-regime tool, not an intraday or weekly signal. Traders using it need to combine with shorter-timeframe analysis.
Related Intelligence
- MVRV ratio: On-chain cycle indicator with similar regime-identification use.
- Puell Multiple: Miner-revenue-based cycle indicator.
- Moving Averages: The underlying technical indicator Mayer is built on.
Frequently Asked Questions
Related Intelligence
On-Chain
MVRV Ratio
On-chain cycle-regime indicator similar in use to Mayer Multiple.
On-Chain
Puell Multiple
Miner-revenue cycle indicator for confluence signals.
Technicals
Moving Averages
The underlying technical foundation of Mayer's 200-day MA metric.
On-Chain
NVT Ratio
Activity-based valuation metric that complements Mayer's price-based view.
Not financial advice. Educational purposes only. Do your own research.
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