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MVRV Ratio: Market Value vs Realized Value for Crypto Cycle Timing
MVRV ratio explained. How market value over realized value identifies cycle tops and bottoms, the MVRV Z-score variant, and how traders use MVRV alongside other on-chain signals.
Updated May 9, 2026· CRYPTINT.IO Intelligence
Key Takeaways
- +MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) compares the current market cap of a crypto asset against the value at which all coins last moved on-chain. Ratios above 3.5 have historically flagged cycle tops. Ratios below 1.0 have flagged cycle bottoms.
- +Realized value is the 'cost basis' of the network. Each coin is valued at the price when it last moved on-chain. Summing across the supply gives a bottom-up estimate of what investors have actually paid.
- +MVRV Z-score normalizes MVRV against its historical distribution. Z-scores above 7 have preceded major tops. Z-scores below 0 have preceded major bottoms. The Z-score is the metric most commonly referenced on Glassnode and CryptoQuant.
- +MVRV works best on Bitcoin, where long cycles and broad adoption produce statistically meaningful patterns. It can be computed for other assets (ETH, major alts) but signal quality degrades with shorter history and more speculative supply.
- +MVRV is lagging. It confirms cycle extremes after they've formed rather than predicting them. Combined with other pillars (sentiment, technicals, macro), it becomes a useful regime indicator.
What MVRV Measures
MVRV divides the current market capitalization of a crypto asset by its realized capitalization. The formula is:
MVRV = Market Cap / Realized Cap
- Market cap is the standard measure: current price times circulating supply.
- Realized cap is the sum of each coin's value at the price it last moved on-chain. A coin that hasn't moved since 2013 is valued at $13, even if today's price is $100,000.
The ratio tells you whether current market value is significantly above or below the aggregate cost basis of holders. High MVRV means prices are far above what holders paid (unrealized gains are large, distribution is likely, cycle may be topping). Low MVRV means prices are near or below what holders paid (unrealized losses, capitulation risk, cycle may be bottoming).
How Realized Cap Is Calculated
Realized cap sums each coin's last-moved value:
- For each unspent transaction output (UTXO on Bitcoin) or address balance (on account-model chains), determine the price on the day the coin last moved
- Multiply the coin amount by that price
- Sum across all coins
The result: a bottom-up estimate of network cost basis. It's insensitive to speculative pricing because it tracks actual on-chain transactions rather than market psychology.
Realized cap grows over time as new coins are mined (at current prices) and as coins move (updating their last-moved price). It drops when high-basis coins move during drawdowns (their value is recalculated lower). During bear markets, realized cap often flattens or declines slightly as weak hands capitulate and distribute.
Historical MVRV Patterns
Bitcoin MVRV at Cycle Turns
| Date | Event | Approximate MVRV |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 2013 peak | First major cycle top | 5.0+ |
| Jan 2015 bottom | Post-Mt. Gox bottom | 0.85 |
| Dec 2017 peak | Second major cycle top | 4.2 |
| Dec 2018 bottom | Post-ICO bust bottom | 0.70 |
| Apr 2021 peak | Pre-Great-Migration top | 3.9 |
| Nov 2021 peak | ETF / Nov cycle top | 3.1 |
| Nov 2022 bottom | FTX crash bottom | 0.80 |
| Mar 2024 (pre-halving) | Strong rally | 2.7 |
The historical pattern: MVRV above 3.5 has coincided with every major Bitcoin top to date. MVRV below 1.0 has coincided with every major bottom. Not precise timing, but reliable regime flags.
Each cycle's peak MVRV has been lower than the previous one. 5.0 in 2013 became 4.2 in 2017, 3.9 in 2021. This is consistent with crypto market maturation: larger market cap requires more absolute capital to move, so relative multipliers shrink.
MVRV Z-Score
MVRV Z-score standardizes MVRV against its historical distribution:
MVRV Z-score = (Market Cap - Realized Cap) / Standard Deviation of Market Cap
The Z-score emphasizes how extreme the current MVRV is relative to Bitcoin's full history rather than just comparing ratio levels.
Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score Regimes
| Z-Score Range | Interpretation | Historical Context |
|---|---|---|
| > 7 | Extreme overvaluation | Every major cycle top |
| 3-7 | Euphoria zone | Late bull market |
| 0-3 | Normal bull | Upward trend in effect |
| -0.5 to 0 | Cooling / transition | Market uncertain |
| Below -0.5 | Capitulation | Every major cycle bottom |
The Z-score has been Glassnode's recommended MVRV representation because it's more stable across market sizes. As Bitcoin's market cap has grown from millions to trillions, the ratio dynamics have shifted; the Z-score normalizes for this.
Limitations and Caveats
MVRV is lagging. By the time MVRV clearly signals a top or bottom, significant price moves have already happened. It's better at confirming regime than predicting turns.
MVRV assumes coin movement represents actual economic activity. Coins moving between cold wallets (custodial rebalancing, self-custody consolidation) don't change the underlying holder's cost basis but do update the on-chain last-moved price. This introduces some noise.
The metric has worked well for Bitcoin specifically. For other assets:
- Ethereum: MVRV works but with less history and more noise from smart-contract interactions that shift "last moved" prices without reflecting real basis changes.
- Major alts: Usable for SOL, ADA, XRP with multiple cycles of history. Less reliable for newer tokens.
- Stablecoins: MVRV is meaningless for stablecoins; their realized cap tracks supply, not holder behavior.
MVRV Variants and Related Metrics
Several variants address MVRV's limitations:
- SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio): measures realized profit/loss at the moment coins move. Our guide to SOPR covers this in detail.
- NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss): similar to MVRV but expresses the gap as a percentage of market cap.
- LTH vs STH MVRV: splits MVRV by holder age. Long-term holder MVRV vs short-term holder MVRV reveals cohort-level positioning.
- Realized Price: realized cap divided by supply. Gives a "network average cost basis" in dollar terms.
Combining MVRV with Other Signals
MVRV alone is a lagging regime indicator. Combined with other inputs, it's more actionable:
- MVRV + Funding rates: extreme MVRV plus extreme positive funding flags an overheated top
- MVRV + Fear and Greed: MVRV above 3.5 plus Extreme Greed has been the strongest historical cycle-top signal
- MVRV + Whale distribution: when MVRV is high and whales are moving coins to exchanges, distribution is actively occurring
- MVRV + Macro: macro context determines whether MVRV extremes resolve with reversion or with continued extension
The confluence approach beats single-metric analysis. MVRV is one input; combining it produces higher-conviction signals.
Frequently Asked Questions
Related Intelligence
On-Chain
SOPR
Realized profit/loss at the moment of coin movement - complements MVRV's cost-basis view.
On-Chain
Long-term vs Short-term Holders
The cohort analysis that splits MVRV by holder age.
On-Chain
Realized Cap
The denominator in the MVRV ratio.
Sentiment
Fear and Greed Index
MVRV + sentiment extremes produce stronger cycle signals than either alone.
On-Chain
Supply distribution
Complementary view of who holds what at current prices.
Not financial advice. Educational purposes only. Do your own research.
Cryptint provides data and analysis for educational purposes only. Nothing on this site is financial advice. Past signals do not guarantee future results. Do your own research. Consult a licensed financial advisor before acting on any information presented here.