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SOPR: Spent Output Profit Ratio for Reading Realized Profit and Loss
SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) explained. How it measures realized profit and loss at the moment of coin movement, the aSOPR adjustment, and how to read SOPR for cycle timing.
Updated May 12, 2026· CRYPTINT.IO Intelligence
Key Takeaways
- +SOPR measures whether coins moving on-chain are being sold at a profit or a loss relative to when they were last received. A SOPR above 1 means holders are on average realizing gains. Below 1 means losses.
- +SOPR flipping below 1 during a bull market typically marks a meaningful local correction. SOPR staying below 1 for extended periods signals capitulation and has historically preceded cycle bottoms.
- +aSOPR (adjusted SOPR) filters out transactions where coins moved within 1 hour, reducing noise from exchange internal movements and other technical transactions that don't represent real selling decisions.
- +SOPR can be split by holder age. LTH-SOPR (long-term holders) vs STH-SOPR (short-term holders) reveals whether distribution is coming from experienced holders or from recent buyers panicking.
- +SOPR is lagging. It confirms that profit or loss realization occurred, after the fact. Combined with MVRV (unrealized position) and funding (derivatives positioning), it reveals a fuller picture of market regime.
What SOPR Measures
SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) is computed as:
SOPR = Value of coins at the moment they're moved / Value of those coins when last received
Aggregated across all coins moving in a given day, SOPR summarizes the average profit/loss at which holders are transacting. Greater than 1: on average, coins moving are in profit. Less than 1: on average, they're in loss. Equal to 1: break-even.
The intuition: when holders move coins, they're usually acting on a decision. Selling profitable coins suggests distribution. Selling unprofitable coins suggests capitulation. Aggregated SOPR reveals the aggregate disposition of active sellers.
How It's Calculated
On Bitcoin, SOPR is computed at the UTXO level. Each UTXO (unspent transaction output) has a last-received price. When it's spent, the ratio of current price to last-received price is the UTXO's SOPR. Daily SOPR averages this across all UTXOs spent that day, weighted by value.
On Ethereum, SOPR uses address-level cost basis tracking. Less clean than UTXO accounting but the same principle applies.
Example: three holders spend BTC on the same day.
- Holder A: 1 BTC received at $30,000, spent at $60,000. SOPR = 2.0
- Holder B: 1 BTC received at $50,000, spent at $60,000. SOPR = 1.2
- Holder C: 1 BTC received at $70,000, spent at $60,000. SOPR = 0.857
Weighted average SOPR for the day = about 1.35. Coin-movement average is in profit, but the presence of Holder C shows not everyone is winning.
SOPR Regimes
SOPR Behavior Across Market Phases
| Phase | SOPR Pattern |
|---|---|
| Strong bull | SOPR consistently above 1; brief pullbacks to 1 that bounce |
| Bull market correction | SOPR dips below 1 briefly, then resets and climbs back |
| Cycle top | SOPR at peak values (1.1+), then rolls over as distribution begins |
| Early bear | SOPR oscillating around 1 as holders dispose of profits |
| Deep bear / capitulation | SOPR persistently below 1; holders selling at losses for extended periods |
| Cycle bottom | SOPR bottoms near 0.95-0.97 then slowly climbs back to 1 |
The transition from "SOPR dips below 1 briefly" to "SOPR stays below 1" often marks regime change from bull to bear. The opposite (SOPR recovering from prolonged sub-1 readings back above 1) has marked cycle bottoms historically.
aSOPR: Adjusted SOPR
Raw SOPR includes noise from short-lived coin movements that don't represent real selling:
- Exchange hot-to-cold wallet transfers
- Change outputs from previous transactions
- Technical transactions from DeFi protocols
- Self-custody rebalancing
aSOPR excludes any output that moved within 1 hour of being received. This filter removes most of the noise and produces cleaner signals. aSOPR is the default version most analysts use.
LTH-SOPR vs STH-SOPR
Splitting SOPR by holder age reveals cohort behavior:
- LTH-SOPR (Long-Term Holders, coins held 155+ days): tracks what experienced holders are doing
- STH-SOPR (Short-Term Holders, coins held under 155 days): tracks recent buyers
In bull markets, STH-SOPR often stays high while LTH-SOPR stays near 1 (experienced holders aren't yet distributing). Late-cycle: LTH-SOPR rises sharply as experienced holders take profits into retail buying.
In bear markets: STH-SOPR crashes first (recent buyers panic-sell at losses). LTH-SOPR holds above 1 longer (experienced holders have low cost basis). When LTH-SOPR finally falls below 1, that's a signal of deep capitulation.
SOPR in Practice
Common patterns:
Bounce Signals
During uptrends, SOPR dipping to exactly 1 (break-even) often marks local bottoms. The logic: holders who bought recently reach break-even and decide whether to hold or exit. If buying pressure holds, the dip to 1 bounces. If selling accelerates, SOPR breaks below 1 and price continues down.
Reset and Continuation
A healthy bull market shows SOPR resetting to 1 periodically without breaking down. Each reset shakes out weak hands and refreshes the structure. Continued bull moves with SOPR never approaching 1 are less sustainable.
Capitulation Confirmation
SOPR sustained below 1 for weeks or months confirms a bear market. The longer the sub-1 period, the deeper the capitulation, the more constructive the eventual bottom.
Distribution Signals
SOPR running at elevated levels (1.05+) with LTH-SOPR spiking specifically suggests experienced holder distribution. Often coincides with cycle tops when combined with other indicators.
Limitations
SOPR has the same limitations as other on-chain metrics:
- Lagging: measures what already happened, not what's about to happen
- Off-chain blind spot: coins moving within exchanges don't touch the chain and don't affect SOPR
- Cost basis challenges on account-model chains: Ethereum SOPR is less clean than Bitcoin's UTXO-native calculation
- Ignored context: SOPR doesn't know whether a sell is strategic, forced (liquidation), or emotional
SOPR Combined with Other Signals
SOPR is most useful as part of a confluence view:
- SOPR + MVRV: SOPR confirms realized position; MVRV measures unrealized. High MVRV + SOPR trending up = top formation.
- SOPR + funding rates: SOPR below 1 + extreme negative funding = broad capitulation across spot and derivatives.
- SOPR + whale flows: Large whale deposits to exchanges coinciding with SOPR spikes indicate concentrated distribution.
Frequently Asked Questions
Related Intelligence
On-Chain
MVRV Ratio
The unrealized-position counterpart to SOPR's realized-position measurement.
On-Chain
Long-term vs Short-term Holders
The cohort analysis SOPR is often segmented by.
On-Chain
Realized Cap
Related aggregate cost-basis measure.
Sentiment
Funding Rates
Derivatives positioning that complements SOPR's spot view.
Not financial advice. Educational purposes only. Do your own research.
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