Long-Term vs Short-Term Holders: The Cohort Split That Defines Crypto Cycles

What the Cohort Split Is

On-chain analysts divide coin holders into two groups based on how long they've held their coins:

• Long-Term Holders (LTH): addresses holding coins for 155+ days
• Short-Term Holders (STH): addresses holding coins for under 155 days

Each coin (or UTXO on Bitcoin) is tagged with its last-moved date. Aggregating across the network produces LTH and STH supply totals. These totals change as time passes (STH supply ages into LTH as days accumulate) and as coins move (resetting their clocks back to STH).

Why 155 Days?

Glassnode's research found that coin behavior changes statistically around 155 days of holding. Coins held beyond this threshold rarely move during normal market activity; coins held under it turn over much more frequently. The threshold is empirical rather than fundamental. Slightly different cutoffs (140 days, 180 days) produce similar patterns.

The underlying logic: holders who've weathered 5+ months of volatility without selling have demonstrated conviction. They're more likely to be strategic long-term investors than reactive short-term traders. That conviction changes how their coins behave during future market stress.

LTH Supply Curve

The LTH supply series is one of the cleanest cycle indicators in crypto:

The pattern: LTH supply grows during bears (accumulation and holding), peaks as the bottom consolidates, then declines through the bull market as LTHs distribute into retail demand. The curve usually bottoms a few months before price tops.

Reading the curve: LTH supply rising = accumulation phase, bullish structurally. LTH supply falling = distribution phase, bearish structurally. The direction matters more than the level.

Behavior Differences

LTHs and STHs behave very differently:

These differences are what make cohort analysis useful. Aggregate data hides the mix. Cohort-split data reveals which type of holder is actually driving current flows.

Cohort-Level Metrics

LTH-SOPR and STH-SOPR

SOPR split by cohort:

• LTH-SOPR near 1 in bull markets: experienced holders not yet taking profits. Bullish continuation signal.
• LTH-SOPR spiking to 2+ in bull markets: experienced holders distributing into euphoric demand. Late-cycle warning.
• STH-SOPR crashing below 1 during drawdowns: retail panic-selling at losses. Capitulation signal.

LTH-MVRV and STH-MVRV

MVRV split by cohort:

• LTH-MVRV elevated: long-term holders sitting on large unrealized gains. Distribution pressure builds.
• STH-MVRV below 1: short-term holders underwater in aggregate. Capitulation risk.

LTH Distribution Signal

When LTH supply starts falling during a bull market, it means experienced holders are distributing coins that new buyers are absorbing. This is structurally normal for bull markets but reaches unsustainable intensity near cycle tops.

Cycle Timing with Cohort Data

Typical cycle phases through a cohort lens:

Early Bull (Accumulation Ending)

• LTH supply stable or slightly declining (older holders selling small amounts into first rallies)
• STH supply expanding (new buyers entering)
• STH-SOPR above 1 (STH starts making money)
• LTH-SOPR near 1 (holders not yet systematically distributing)

Mid Bull (Markup)

• LTH supply declining steadily (distribution underway)
• STH supply growing fast (retail participation)
• STH-SOPR running hot (trend-following strategies profitable)
• LTH-MVRV rising as price moves far above LTH cost basis

Late Bull (Top Formation)

• LTH supply at multi-year lows (most long-term coins distributed)
• STH supply at highs (majority of circulating is recently acquired)
• LTH-SOPR spiking as experienced holders take profits
• LTH-MVRV at extreme (potential distribution zone)

Early Bear (Markdown)

• STH-SOPR crashes below 1 (recent buyers underwater)
• STH supply begins shrinking (forced sales, exits)
• LTH supply stops declining; begins growing (older coins aging into LTH cohort)

Deep Bear (Capitulation)

• LTH-SOPR finally falls below 1 (even experienced holders capitulating)
• LTH supply grows rapidly (accumulation resumes)
• STH-MVRV extreme negative (maximum pain for recent buyers)

Accumulation (Cycle Bottom)

• LTH supply at multi-year highs
• STH supply at cycle lows
• STH-SOPR recovers to 1 (new buyers starting to make money again)

Limitations

Cohort analysis shares on-chain limitations:

• Off-chain activity: coins moving in exchange custody don't trigger cohort updates
• Technical transactions: wallet consolidation and similar movements reset the clock without real economic action
• Cross-chain bridging: bridged assets complicate cohort tracking
• Account-model noise: Ethereum and other non-UTXO chains require different tracking approaches; signal is dirtier than Bitcoin's

For Bitcoin specifically, cohort metrics are clean and reliable. For ETH and major alts, usable but noisier. For smaller tokens, often not computed or not reliable when computed.