DECLASSIFIED // INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING // FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY
This content is informational only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.
Supply Distribution and HODL Waves: Who Holds What, and When
Supply distribution in crypto explained. HODL waves, coin age bands, supply concentration metrics, and how distribution tracks cycle behavior across cohorts.
Updated May 13, 2026· CRYPTINT.IO Intelligence
Key Takeaways
- +Supply distribution tracks how a coin's supply is split across holders. On Bitcoin, this can be sliced by holder size (retail, whales, addresses holding 1k+ BTC) or by coin age (how long since coins last moved).
- +HODL waves are a specific distribution visualization: a stacked area chart showing what percentage of supply has been held for various durations. HODL wave patterns reveal cycle dynamics over multi-year timeframes.
- +Supply held by long-term holders typically peaks during bear markets (nobody is selling) and bottoms near cycle peaks (distribution into retail). The ratio of LTH to STH supply is a useful regime indicator.
- +Supply concentration (percentage of supply held by top addresses) varies across chains. Bitcoin's supply is relatively distributed; many altcoins have high concentration in insider, foundation, and institutional wallets.
- +Distribution metrics are lagging and require combining with cost basis and flow data to be actionable. Knowing how supply is spread doesn't tell you what holders will do next, only where they stand.
What Supply Distribution Measures
Supply distribution is the mapping of circulating supply to holders. At any point in time:
- How many coins are held by wallets holding under 1 BTC?
- How many are held by wallets with 10+ BTC, 100+, 1,000+, 10,000+?
- How many have been held for under 1 day? 1 week? 1 month? 1 year? 5 years?
- How many are held by exchanges? By mining pools? By known entities (MicroStrategy, BlackRock)?
These distributions reveal who owns the network, how concentrated ownership is, and how long the current holders have been holding. Changes over time reveal who's accumulating and who's distributing.
HODL Waves
HODL waves is Unchained Capital's visualization that has become the standard view of Bitcoin's age-banded supply distribution. Each color band in the chart represents supply in a specific age range: 1 week, 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, 2 years, 3 years, 5+ years.
The chart reveals several patterns:
- Bear market accumulation: older age bands (2y+, 5y+) grow as holders refuse to sell
- Bull market distribution: older bands shrink as long-term holders take profits
- Cycle transitions: the composition of "young" vs "old" coins reveals whether the market is making distribution-heavy or accumulation-heavy moves
Long-Term vs Short-Term Holder Supply
The 155-day boundary used in SOPR also defines LTH/STH supply:
- LTH Supply: coins held for 155+ days
- STH Supply: coins held under 155 days
These series oscillate with cycles. LTH supply grows during bear markets as holders accumulate and hold. LTH supply shrinks during bull markets as those accumulated coins move back into circulation (distribution).
Historical pattern:
- LTH supply peaks: typically during deep bear markets. Investors have been sitting on coins through drawdowns. Distribution ready to begin.
- LTH supply bottoms: typically near cycle tops. Most coins that were long-held have now been distributed. Supply is in weaker hands.
Our guide to long-term vs short-term holders covers this split in more detail.
Supply Concentration
Concentration measures how much of total supply is held by the largest addresses:
Bitcoin Supply Concentration (Approximate, 2026)
| Address Tier | Address Count | Share of Supply |
|---|---|---|
| Shrimp (under 1 BTC) | Tens of millions | ~7% |
| Crab (1-10 BTC) | ~1M | ~10% |
| Fish (10-100 BTC) | ~150K | ~15% |
| Shark (100-1,000 BTC) | ~15K | ~20% |
| Whale (1,000-10,000 BTC) | ~2K | ~25% |
| Humpback (10,000+ BTC) | ~100 | ~23% |
Note: "shrimp," "crab," "fish," "shark," "whale," and "humpback" are the standard glassnode cohort labels. Exchanges, ETF custodians, and major miners hold meaningful fractions of supply and are typically broken out separately.
For many altcoins, supply concentration is much higher. Foundation wallets, early investors, and insiders often control significant percentages. Chains like Solana, Cardano, and Polkadot had large launch allocations to treasury and team wallets that still hold supply years later.
What Distribution Shifts Mean
Healthy Accumulation
During bear markets, you'd expect to see:
- LTH supply increasing (holders refusing to sell)
- Exchange supply decreasing (coins moving to self-custody)
- Shrimp and crab tiers growing (retail accumulation)
- Whale supply steady or growing (large holders accumulating)
This pattern signals a cycle bottom forming. Holders are positioning for the next up-cycle.
Unhealthy Distribution
During cycle tops, you'd expect:
- LTH supply decreasing (long-term holders taking profits)
- Exchange supply increasing (coins moving to exchanges for sale)
- Shrimp tier growing rapidly (new retail entering)
- Whale supply decreasing (distribution)
This pattern signals distribution in progress. Strong hands selling to weak hands.
Neutral Ranging
Flat distribution (no meaningful changes across cohorts) typically reflects range-bound markets with no dominant narrative. Neither accumulation nor distribution is the defining activity.
Cross-Chain Supply Distribution Patterns
Typical Supply Concentration Across Major Chains
| Chain | Insider/Foundation Share | Retail Share |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | Low (early whales + Satoshi's untouched coins) | Growing |
| Ethereum | Modest (pre-sale ICO participants + foundation) | Broad |
| Solana | High (foundation + early investors) | Growing |
| Cardano | High (foundation + ADA treasury + early sale) | Broad |
| BNB | Very high (Binance treasury + burns reducing supply) | Moderate |
| Polkadot | High (parachain reserves + foundation) | Growing |
| Most new L1s | Very high at launch, gradually distributing | Growing over time |
Higher insider concentration increases risk of market impact from insider selling (token unlocks, treasury distributions, vesting cliffs). Lower concentration (Bitcoin's model) produces more durable supply against individual-actor selling pressure.
Reading Distribution Data
Practical questions to ask:
- What's the LTH/STH ratio trending toward? LTH growing = accumulation regime. LTH falling = distribution regime.
- Where is exchange-held supply trending? Falling = coins moving to self-custody (bullish). Rising = coins moving for sale (bearish).
- How concentrated is supply relative to peers? Low concentration = more durable. High concentration = insider risk.
- Are new addresses growing? Growing retail address count often precedes bull cycles.
Distribution metrics alone rarely produce trading signals. They provide regime context for other signals.
Frequently Asked Questions
Related Intelligence
On-Chain
Long-term vs Short-term Holders
The cohort split that supply distribution is commonly analyzed through.
On-Chain
MVRV Ratio
Network-level valuation that supply distribution complements.
Whale Tracking
Tracking a Whale
Large-holder behavior within the broader supply distribution picture.
News
Token Unlocks
Scheduled unlocks that reshape circulating supply distribution.
On-Chain
SOPR
Profit/loss realization by the cohorts supply distribution identifies.
On-Chain
Tokenomics
Supply schedule and initial distribution that shape holder cohorts.
Not financial advice. Educational purposes only. Do your own research.
Cryptint provides data and analysis for educational purposes only. Nothing on this site is financial advice. Past signals do not guarantee future results. Do your own research. Consult a licensed financial advisor before acting on any information presented here.